Here Are Goldman Sachs's Top Trades for 2015
The release of Goldman Sachs’ top trade ideas for the year ahead is an
annual staple. Whether you think these are power trades or not, the
time has come for this year's release.
Last year, of the six it suggested, “four were in the black, one was
in the red, and one a little better than a draw.”
Following the release of its big themes for the year, here’s the
rundown for 2015:
#1 – Get set for a further slide in the euro
The bank forecasts EUR/USD to fall to 1.15 over the next 12 months, in
equal parts a reflection of its dollar bullish view and euro bearish
outlook. “Position for the downside via a one-year 1.20/1.15 put
spread for around a 4.5 to 1 potential maximum payout.
#2 - Buy 10-year U.S. Treasurys with yields above 3% but not below 2%
The bank expects 10-year U.S. Treasurys, currently yielding around
2.3%, to trade at or above 3.0% by next June.
#3 - Long a Dec-2015 Eurostoxx 50 ‘bull’ call spread
Economists see scope for a pick-up in euro area growth in 2015 that is
not reflected in market prices yet.
#4 - Long U.S. High-Yield credit risk
The recent underperformance of the U.S.High-Yield market should prove
transitory, the bank reckons.
#5 - Long an equity basket of emerging market crude oil importers
The slide in oil does have benefits.
#6 - Sell the Swiss franc against the Swedish krona
A monetary policy divergence play.
#7 - Short copper against nickel
Position for copper underperformance relative to Nickel via Dec-15 LME
futures,says the bank. This would be a way to play the theme of
"supply differentiation" as copper enters a once-in-20-year supply
cycle, resulting in above-trend supply growth.
#8 - Long dollar against a basket of the South African rand and the